Sunday, October 3, 2010

Week 4 Predictions (Finally!)

Week 3 definitely saw some surprises for my predictions. Who knew that Houston would crumble the way they did against the visiting Dallas team? I really thought the New York Giants would get their act together after the thumping they received at Indianapolis. Instead they got thumped a 2nd week in a row by an angry Tennessee. I still don't know what to make of Washington and Seattle. The Monday Night game was certainly a good one with Jay Cutler showing the maturity needed to overcome the mental pressure and pull out a win against a very good Green Bay offense. When all was said and done, I went 10-6 in Week 3, which brings my total to 31-17.

That said, here are my predictions for Week 4:

San Francisco at Atlanta (Atlanta)
New York Jets at Buffalo (New York Jets)
Cincinnati at Cleveland (Cincinnati)
Detroit at Green Bay (Green Bay)
Carolina at New Orleans (New Orleans)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Baltimore)
Seattle at St. Louis (St. Louis)
Denver at Tennessee (Tennessee)
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Jacksonville)
Houston at Oakland (Houston)
Washington at Philadelphia (Philadelphia)
Arizona at San Diego (San Diego)
Chicago at New York Giants (Chicago)
New England at Miami (Miami)

Bye Week: Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa Bay

Houston is coming off a disappointing home loss to Dallas. Every issue Houston has (and every team has their issues) was put on display in that game. This week they look to bounce back when they visit Oakland. Oakland is coming off a disappointing loss in Arizona where they dominated in passing and rushing. It looks as if the insertion of Gradkowski as the starting Quarterback is paying dividends. Right now Andre Johnson is a game time decision. If he does not go on Sunday, Kevin Walter will be the #1 receiver going up against Nnamdi Asomugha, who is arguably one of the best Cornerbacks in the NFL. I look for whoever lines up on the opposite side of the field to have a big game. Houston should also try to run the ball more (Oakland did give up 119 yards on the ground in Arizona). On the defensive side it's all about pressure. Oakland gave up 3 sacks against Arizona. The defensive line needs to keep pressure on Gradkowski, which in turn will go a long way toward helping the secondary. When it comes right down to it, Houston needs to pull it back together after the disappointing loss against Dallas.

Pittsburgh has been one of the surprises this season. The defense has played superbly thus far and Charlie Batch did an excellent job against Tampa Bay last week. I look for this game to be a defensive struggle all the way as I don't see Batch repeating last week's success. In the end it will be a big play from Joe Flacco that propels Baltimore over Pittsburgh.

Another tough game to call is the Cincinnati/Cleveland game. Seneca Wallace has provided a nice lift to Cleveland and Cincinnati's offense has been disappointing thus far. Cleveland, though, seems to have a way of giving struggling teams a means to pull together. I know this isn't any quantifiable analysis here, but this is the one intangible I can't seem to overlook.

The matchup of the week will be Washington visiting Philadelphia for Don McNabb's homecoming. Washington showed a spark against Houston, but has failed to ignite thus far. Emotion, however, does play a big role in this league and McNabb will be looking to show Philadelphia why they were wrong to trade him. Unfortunately for McNabb, Michael Vick has the Philadelphia offense clicking this season. Whatever shortcomings Vick may possess as a quarterback, his leadership has proven most effective thus far into the season. Washington's defense won't have an answer for Vick, which will be why Philadelphia wins on Sunday.

I'm definitely coming around to seeing Miami as a contender this year. While Miami has not wowed anyone around the league, they have played very solid football on both sides of the ball. It was a very tough loss against the Jets, but they showed the heart that few teams possess. New England's defense continues to be a question mark and while the offense has been productive, it has stumbled against a more capable defense (see Week 2 against the Jets). Miami's ability to disrupt a team's offense will be the key to their victory of New England.

As for the rest of the schedule: Seattle has been inconsistent thus far and if their road loss at Denver is any indication, they will lose on the road in St. Louis. If anything, Tennessee is always a tough place to play and that tough defense will keep Kyle Orton from having a big game. Arizona's offense is too inconsistent to offer any hope of beating the number 1 passing attack in the NFL in San Diego. Chicago may be setting up for a letdown, but the Giants are in disarray (especially with an unhappy running back). Matthew Stafford has been ruled out for Sunday's match in Green Bay. Without Stafford's leadership Detroit is still a team in limbo. The Jets are going to Buffalo, which still can't seem to pull it together. While San Francisco may have had a fire lit under them with a new Offensive Coordinator, Atlanta still has homefield advantage (along with a more talented offense). Rookie QB Jimmy Clausen still has a ways to go in his development, and facing a defense that knows how to force turnovers will not make things any easier for him. Look for New Orleans to handle Carolina this week.

This week should be exciting again. Let's see what it has in store.

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